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The Monty Hall problem is a counter-intuitive statistics puzzle: There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car. You pick a door (call it door A). You’re hoping for the car of course. Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and opens one with a goat. (If both doors have goats, he picks randomly.) Here’s the game: Do you stick with door A (original guess) or switch to the unopened door? Does it matter? Surprisingly, the odds aren’t 50-50. If you switch doors you’ll win 2/3 of the time! Today let’s get an intuition for why a simple game could be so baffling. The game is really about re-evaluating your decisions as new information emerges.
